In an era of deep partisan politics, candidates still matter, according to a poll on Georgia's hotly contested gubernatorial and Senate races released Tuesday.

The survey by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion found that incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leads his GOP challenger, former NFL star Herschel Walker, by 47% to 42%. Warnock's lead is boosted by independents, 45% of whom prefer the Democrat compared to 36% who plan to vote for Walker, and women, 52% of whom plan to vote for Warnock and 35% of whom are planning to cast ballots for Walker.But when it comes to the governor's race, GOP incumbent Brian Kemp is in good shape for reelection, winning some crossover support from suburban and independent voters who will give their votes to Warnock but not to Kemp's Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, the survey found.

In a rematch of the 2018 race – when Kemp barely beat Abrams – the Republican has 50% support compared to 44% who back Abrams, the Marist poll found. Further, when the question is limited to those who definitely plan to vote this fall, Kemp’s lead widens to double digits, with the GOP governor getting 53% of the vote and Abrams, 42%."Straight-ticket voting is much more the norm, but what we’re seeing in Georgia is … an odd ticket-splitting going on, which I don't think we’re seeing elsewhere," Lee Miringoff, director of the poll, said in a conference call with reporters.

Georgia was long a red state but has become far more competitive in recent years, with President Joe Biden taking the state in the 2020 presidential election – the first time a Democrat has won the state since 1992 – and two Democrats – Warnock and Sen. Jon Ossoff – winning Senate seats in runoffs in early 2021.

The ticket-splitting theme is echoed in the "generic ballot" question as well. Asked if they would vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress, the GOP is favored, with 48% saying they will vote for the Republican, and 44% saying they preferred the Democrat.

But that GOP advantage doesn’t remotely reflect Biden's low approval rating in Georgia, where, the Marist poll found, 39% of Peach Staters approve of the president and 55% disapprove. That disparity is especially notable because midterm elections are generally considered to be referendums on the sitting president.

Personalities matter, Miringoff said, noting that some swing voters in Georgia are turned off by Walker – a first-time candidate who has made repeated gaffes and is dealing with allegations of past domestic violence.

Abrams loses heavily among men – 57% of whom want Kemp compared to 37% who say they will vote for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, the survey found. She is also lagging among independents (47% of whom prefer Kemp compared to 41% who favor Abrams) and Atlanta suburbanites (55% of whom favor Kemp and 42% of whom plan to vote for Abrams).

Walker also might be suffering from the Trump effect, said Jay DeDapper, director of strategy and innovation for the Marist Institute. Kemp – who has drawn Trump's ire for refusing to help the former president undo election results in Georgia – has distanced himself from the defeated president even as he advances a very conservative policy agenda. Walker, whom Trump calls a personal friend, has much closer ties to the former president.

"This may be a case of MAGA, non-MAGA Republican," DeDapper said, although he added it was unclear if that will be played out in races in other states.

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